As a frequent doubter of Nate Silver's Five-Thirty-Eight statistics blog I have decided that what I should do is enter into a bit of a competition with Nate Silver regarding the 2012 election. Here is my predition:
Senate: All candidates with a 5+% lead in the polls the Friday before the election will win, the rest will split.
Congress: All candidates with a 5+% lead in the polls the Friday before the election will win, the rest will split.
President: The candidate with a 5+% lead in the polls the Friday before the election will take that state, while the rest will split.
Shew! That was tough! This is, in essence, where Nate Silver will fall on the Friday before the election, and both of us will be off by 1 or 2 seats/states on Wednesday the following week.
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