Monday, February 22, 2021

Who Factchecks the Factcheckers?

By Jmotivator


For the last 4 years Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post has been running a Lie Tracker on President Donald Trump for the Washington Post.  In those four years he has determined that Trump lied 30,573 times.. a number that he, and those pundits who use Glenn to support their narratives, claim to be unprecedented.

The claim of unprecedented lying from Donald Trump is itself dubious given that Glenn Kessler has never run such a statistical  project on previous administrations and has announce that, with the oncoming Biden administration, he will go back to not doing it again.

One might want to point out that such comparative arguments without data is, itself, a lie... but that is just small potatoes.  The real meaning of Glenn Kessler's lie tracker can be derived by actually reading it, an act that, you will discover, nobody was ever meant to do.

I decided to do it because I'm mostly bored, but also because I'm seeing a lot of "lying-est president EVAR!" arguments cropping up again as a response to claims that President Biden might have told a lie.  Someone pointed me at Glenn Kessler's work as proof and, unfortunately, I read it.  I was so befuddled by the bizarre arguments being used that I decided to restart this blog just to score Glenn Kessler's work.

So, let's score Glenn Kessler's running tally of "fact checks" or Trump using his own database, and his own methodology. 

From the start I will point out that Kessler plays very loose with his definition of  "lies". In the case of his Trump tally he counts any misstatement, difference of opinion, over statement or understatement as "lie".

Moreover, when Trump makes a statement wherein the meaning of the claim is undefined, rather than attempt to get a clarification of the claim, Kessler simply substitutes his own definition to the claim and then determines that the claim is a lie.  That is, in fact, a lie on the part of Kessler, not Trump.

What Kessler does here is, itself, a lie by his own definition.  It is misleading at best and, as we'll see as I walk through the 40-odd claims on his tracker page, very likely intentionally dishonest.  That is abysmal behavior for anyone who claims to be a purveyor of facts.  But don't trust me, look at Glenn Kessler's tracking page, read his explanations, then read mine.  Critique my assessments if you want.. the simple fact that we can argue the validity of Kessler's assessment is just further proof that Kessler is giving opinion, not facts.

Then again, when he does give fact it seems to rarely be on the actual substance of the quote he attributes to Trump.  But enough preamble, let's get to it.  I will keep a running tally of how many of Kessler's reported lies belong to Kessler, and how many belong to Trump.

And away we go...  

1) “We also got tax cuts, the largest tax cut and reform in the history of our country, by far.” - Trump

In this first "lie" we see what will become a habit on the part of Kessler to attempt to define the statement after the fact in terms that he finds best helps his case.  

In this case Kessler decides, for no stated reason, that Trump meant "largest tax cut compared to GDP" and then he goes on to state that by Kessler's criteria it is not the largest.  Whereas if you count the total tax dollars, or the total number of people who received a tax reduction, you may very well find that Trump's claim is true, but in this case Kessler's straw man is fabricated and misleading, so Kessler gets the points...


Kessler: 296
Trump: 0


2) “We just got seventy five million votes. And that's a record in the history of in the history of sitting presidents.” - Trump

Kessler's evaluation is just a flat redirection.  Trump clearly qualified "sitting president", which was true, regardless of whether or not Biden received more votes, Biden wasn't the sitting president.

Kessler: 312
Trump: 0


3) “One of the things we're very, very proud of is the selection of almost three hundred federal judges and three great Supreme Court justices.That's a very big number. That's a record-setting number.” - Trump

Kessler's explanation here is a clear mischaracterization on the one hand, and a quibling over the term "nearly" and "selection"...

Trump's "record setting" number was 3 Supreme Court justices in 4 years.  That is true.

Trump stated "selection" of nearly 300 judges, not the seating of those judges, and even counting only seated judges Kessler is down to hanging his hat on the meaning of "nearly"... thin gruel. 

Kessler:  396
Trump: 0

4) “Our first lady has been a woman of great grace and beauty and dignity. And so popular with the people, so popular with the people.” - Trump

Honestly, I could hit Kessler for poll shopping here and do an analysis of the various polls which may or may not prove his point, but sure.. Trump said something nice about his wife that might not be true.  Score 1 for Kessler.

Kessler: 396
Trump: 1

5) “That's why [regulation cuts] we have such good, and have had such good, job numbers. The job numbers have been absolutely incredible.” -Trump

Here Kessler mixes up causation.  Trump was speaking of the record employment before COVID, the shutdowns by states after COVID were not federal regulations, so in fact, Kessler would need to determine what unemployment would be today had unemploymnet not been so low at the start of COVID... but he didn't so...

Kessler: 397
Trump: 1

6) “When we started, had we not been hit by the pandemic, we would have had numbers that would never have been said already. Our [employment] numbers are the best ever. If you look at what happened until February a year ago, our numbers were at a level that nobody had ever seen before.” - Trump

Kessler attempts here to substitute participation rate with unemployment, a switcheroo that any economist would tell you is utterly foolish.  Participation rate is the number of working aged individuals versus total people enmployed or seeking employment.  As such, participation rate will be low in an aging population since retirees, being voluntarily out of the work force, still count in participation rate even when they are happily retired.

Moreover, Kessler makes the bizarre hand-waving attempt to claim that low unemployment before COVID was the consequence of "steady population growth" .... what....

No, Glenn, there are any number of countries that would like to have a word with you on that stupid rationalization. 

It's so stupid I really want to give Glenn double demerits... but I'll stick to the plan.

Kessler:  493
Trump: 1


7) “What we've done has been amazing by any standard. We rebuilt the United States military.” - Trump

Kessler again attempts to define what Trump said in a way to create a lie where no lie exists.  The truth is that the US military was growing under Trump even while Trump was spinning down foreign deployments.

Kessler's lie here is the presumption that when a war spins down over seas that the US military shrinks.  That might have been true back when our military was built on the draft in times of war, but not the case with an all volunteer army.  The reason that the army shrinks today is an unwillingess of a given administration to replace losses due to retirement.

In an all volunteer army the size of the military is entirely the discretion of the CiC.

.. but then the numbers show the lie in Kessler's argument.  Trump largely did shrink US troop involvement overseas and the military grew, it didn't shrink.

Kessler:  743
Trump: 1


8) “We took care of the vets, 91 percent approval rating.” - Trump

Here there is a claim by Kessler that the 91 percent was a 2014 number, and that the number is now 82%.  I give this one to Kessler.

Kessler: 743
Trump: 58


9) “Our beautiful vets, they were very badly treated before we came along. And, as you know, we get them great service and we pick up the bill, and they can go out and they can see a doctor if they have to wait long periods of time.”

Kessler calls this Trump's "most insidious lie" but it seems to be Kessler's most insidious tactic in this "fact check".  Note that Kessler begins with the following:

"Trump does not mention "VA Choice" but he is referring to the Veterans Access"

.. Is he Glenn?  Did you ask?  Could he have been talking about the MISSION Act, a bill that he received a considerable amount of praise for?  In fact, what Trump described in that statement is precisely what the MISSION Act was written to acocmplish, per Military.Com:

"At its core, the MISSION Act reflects the president's vision that veterans need to be at the center of their health care decisions. If it's too long a drive to the VA, if wait times are too long, if we can't offer the services a veteran needs, or if it's simply in the best medical interest of a veteran to use non-VA services, they can now seek care in their community."

You lied, Glenn.

Kessler: 960
Trump: 58

10) “We got it so that we can sadly get rid of people that don't treat our vets properly. We had we didn't have any of those rights before when I came on.” - Trump

This statement is more of a muddle, and the kind of grey area that Kessler feels most comfortable in.  The point of 
 the Veterans Affairs Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act was specifically to grant the DVA more power to discipline VA workers that they didn't have before, and even Kessler has to concede that the rate of firing under Trump increased by a whopping 32%.. proving the intent of Trump's statement to be true, and unworthy of the designation as a "lie"...

Kessler: 1,079
Trump: 58

11) “We also built the greatest economy in the history of the world…Powered by these policies, we built the greatest economy in the history of the world.” - Trump

Here is yet another case where Kessler has taken a statement by Trump, decided what he thought it meant, and then cast judgement, again engineering the lie.

Now, before I go too far on this, I should point out that the US economy has been the greatest economy on the planet for a very long time, and so long as it is growing it continues to be the greatest economy the world has ever seen.  Even during the recession the US economy was the greatest in the world, but it wasn't as great as the economy in recent past.  So Trump's statement, in that regards, is a "well duh", but that is because it is obviously true, not because it is a lie.

That being said, when all of the economists that Kessler chooses to listen to claimed under Obama that the cap on 1st world economic growth is  2%, Trump exceeded that in an economy that the Glenn Kesslers of the world had claimed were already recovered. 

So Trump's cheering the Trump era economic growth is not misplaced, and not a lie.


Kessler: 1,572
Trump: 58


12) “All Americans were horrified by the assault on our capital. Political violence is an attack on everything we cherish as Americans. It can never be tolerated.” - Trump

In this "fact check" Kessler inserts opion into a claim that it quite clearly true and tries to build a thought crime behind Trump's statements against the January 6th riot.

But then also look what Kessler did here.  Trump said "all Americans were horrified" and Kessler attempts to "debunk" this statement by making it about Trump and Trump alone.

Kessler: 1,573
Trump: 58


13) “Together with millions of hardworking patriots across this land, we built the greatest political movement in the history of our country.” - Trump

Sure, Trump bravado here to placate his base isn't actually true.  But even with the statement set up on the T for Kessler he can't help but fudge with the "fact check", comparing the Trump movement to "the global Human Rights movement"... which doesn't stick within the clear qualifications of the statement.

But the Trump statement is false.

Kessler: 1,573
Trump: 75


14) “Our agenda was not about right or left. It wasn't about Republican or Democrat, but about the good of a nation.” - Trump

Kessler attempts to make this a lie by saying that Trump painted Democrats as "evil"... then goes on to try and prove that by showing that Trump claimed that Democrat policies were not good for the country.  So Kessler failed to show it was a lie, only that Trump felt Joe Boiden's polcies would be bad for the country.

It's not a lie, Glenn, it's an opinion.

Kessler: 1,574
Trump: 75

13) “We slashed more job killing regulations than any administration had ever done before.” - Trump

Here Kessler goes back to his old methodology of determining what Trump meant and then attacking that.  In this case Kessler has chosen to read "job killing regulations" as "regulations" as a general term, and then tried to show the regulations didn't save jobs because... wait for it.. COVID.

State regulations in the case of COVID killed jobs.. quite literally on purpose.  That isn't Trump administration regulations of regulation cutting, that is the states.  

But really, Kessler takes a shot on his own goal at the very beginning of his explanation:

"There is no reliable metric on which to judge this claim — or to compare him to previous presidents"

Huh.. well if there is no way for Glenn to determine the truth of this statement then there is no way for Glenn to determine it is a lie.  So we are left with Kessler establishing a lie from thin air... which is, at best, misleading, and by his own methodology, a lie.

Kessler: 1,774
Trump: 75

14) “We imposed historic and monumental tariffs on China….Billions and billions of dollars were pouring into the U.S.” - Trump

This one is a puzzler... in his explantion for why this is a lie Kessler closes with the  following statement:

"Through Jan. 13, 2021, the Trump tariffs have garnered about $75 billion on products from China"


So what Trump stated in the quote provided was 100% correct.  Thanks, Glenn.

Kessler: 2,022
Trump: 75 

15) “NATO countries are now paying hundreds of billions of dollars more than when I arrived just a few years ago. It was very unfair. We were paying the cost for the world. Now the world is helping us.” - Trump

Again, Kessler shoots on his own goal in the closer:

"NATO estimates that European NATO and Canada will add $130 billion in cumulative defense spending through 2020, in 2015 dollars, as an increase over 2016 spending. NATO also estimates the cumulative figure will rise to $400 billion through 2024." 


So Trump's statement is true.

Kessler:  2,158
Trump: 75

16) “Perhaps most importantly of all, with nearly three trillion dollars, we fully rebuilt the American military, all made in the USA.”

For some reason Kessler decided that "rebuilding the military" meant equipment only.  (Hint: It doesn't)

But, interestingly, regarding equipment purchases, that 20% is actually a stand out.  In general, equipment cost is about 10-15% of total cost with 85-90% of cost going to maintenance and personnel.. so 20% is high.


But that is beside the point.  Kessler doesn't even try to prove the Trump statement here is a lie, he just changes the subject.

Kessler:  2,275
Trump: 75

17) “The Abraham Accords opened the doors to a future of peace and harmony, not violence and bloodshed.” - Trump

Kessler decides that "opens the door" is not something Trump said, and decided to evaluate the statemnt as if the Abraham accords were ending active wars between those states.

This might be the most shameful of Kessler's "fact checks", and I think deep down he knows what an awful thing he did here... but mostly that is because I still hold out some hope that Glenn Kessler has a conscience.

Shame on you, Glenn Kessler.

Kessler:  2,311
Trump: 75

18) “I am especially proud to be the first president in decades who has started no new wars.” - Trump

In an attempt to make this a lie, Kessler points out that Jimmy Carter also didn't start any wars....

Let's see.... 2020 ... minus 1980... carry the 1... 

Well gee, Glenn, that was 4 decades ago.  So it's true.

Kessler:  2,312
Trump: 75

19) “[We] renegotiated the one-sided South Korea deal.” -Trump

Kessler's gotcha here amounts to there was a South Korea deal and Trump renegotiated it.

In your face, Trump!

Kessler:  2,328
Trump: 75


20) “We replaced NAFTA with the groundbreaking USMCA — that’s Mexico and Canada — a deal that’s worked out very, very well.” - Trump

Kessler decided that he'd rehash his South Korea trade argument here by calling this a lie because, while Trump says he replaced NAFTA with USMCA, what he really did was replace NAFTA with USMCA.

Got 'eem!

Kessler: 2,486
Trump: 75


21) “America outperformed other countries economically because of our incredible economy and the economy that we built.” - Trump

Kessler again tried to fabricate a lie by deciding what Trump meant and then attacking it.  He wants you to believe that China's economic growth, not its overall size, is the mark of heath when, in reality, such growth is a product of China being a depressed economy in recovery from being a 2nd World economy, rather than a matured 1st World economy like the US.

What Glenn tries to do here is like claiming that a 90 year old man who walked half a mile, doubling his average walking distance, is healthier than a person who runs 6 miles a day because they didn't increase their distance.

It's economically illiterate is what I'm getting at.

Kessler: 2,515
Trump: 75


22) “We also unlocked our energy resources and became the world's number one producer of oil and natural gas.” - Trump

When it comes to Presidents and the macro economy, or the energy economy, there should be a Hippocratic oath: "First, do no harm".

Look at the wrath a new Administration has reigned down on the energy sector, let's just say that, at worst, Trump was a better steward of US energy independence.

Also, insofar as Trump did open public land for exploration, an executive order that Biden rescinded, clearly Trump was telling the truth.

Kessler: 2,516
Trump: 75


23) 
“We passed nearly four trillion dollars in economic relief, saved or supported over 50 million jobs and slashed the unemployment rate in half.” - Trump

Kessler again ignores Trump's own qualifications in this statement "Saved or supported" and attempts to show that Trump didn't save 50 million jobsHe then goes on to show that Trump's initiative saved 14 million jobs and never bothers to try and figure out how many jobs the initiative supported.

That, Glenn Kessler, is misleading, and a lie by your own methodology.

Kessler:  2,535
Trump: 75



24) “[We] stood up to Big Pharma in so many ways, but especially in our effort to get favored nations clauses added, which will give us the lowest prescription drug prices anywhere in the world.” - Trump

Kessler attempts to write off this claim by saying that the EO signed by Trump was "toothless" and wouldn't accomplish what he intended.

It was so toothless that Biden, who raked in millions from Big Pharma during the elections, rescinded that EO on his first day in office.

.. why do you suppose that was, Glenn?

Kessler: 2,620
Trump: 75

25) “We passed VA choice.” - Trump

Digging into the spreadsheet here shows Kessler played loose with what he considered "VA Choice".  Essentially if Trump ever said VA and "Choice" in the same sentence Kessler called it a lie.

Even in his write-up on the list he states that Trump meant the Mission Act.  So it's not a lie, he signed an amendment to the VA Choice act... and Kessler makes that a lie.

You all following along here?  If Trump says he replaced a trade deal Kessler calls him a liar if the new trade deal contains elements of the previous trade deal, and if he amends a bill he is called a liar if he mentions the name of the bill.

With Kessler it's "heads I when, tails you lose" for everything Trump says.

Even assuming that Trump is calling the Mission Act "VA Choice", it's not a lie unless Glenn can prove it's intentional.  If Trump hadn't passed the Mission Act then Kessler might have a point...

But he did, so he doesn't...

But for fairness, I'll split this, and even hand Trump the remainder.

Kessler:  2,728
Trump: 184


27) “The American people pleaded with Washington to finally secure the nation's borders. I am pleased to say we answered that plea and achieved the most secure border in U.S. history.” - Trump

This "fact check" is just bizarre.  Here Glenn tries to prove Trump is lying about boarder security by stating the record number of apprehensions at the Southern boarder during the Trump administration....

.... I

... but....

Those statistics support Trump's claims, they don't disprove them.

Kessler:  2,796
Trump: 184

28) “We proudly leave the next administration with the strongest and most robust border security measures ever put into place. This includes historic agreements with Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador...” - Trump

Kessler's argument here is that Trump didn't get everything he wanted with regards to boarder security, so it's a lie.

It's not a lie.

In fact, if you go read his explanation for this one you see that he actually shot his argument for #27 in the foot.  But then that wasn't all that impactful since he already fed his argument in #27 through the wood chipper.  All he had left to shoot was the foot.

Kessler: 2,797
Trump: 184


29) “...along with more than 450 miles of powerful new wall.” - Trump

Kessler's argument here was that Trump built only 450 miles of new wall, not 450 miles of new wall.

Busted!

Kessler:  2,909
Trump: 184


30) “The world respects us again. Please don't lose that respect.” - Trump

Kessler's argument here is a series of polls that show foreign people in various countries don't like the US.

"Like" and "Respect" are two entirely different things.  A marine in basic at Camp Lejeune may not like their drill instructors, but they respect them.

Kessler:  2,990
Trump: 184


31) “Like all of you, I was shocked and deeply saddened by the calamity at the Capitol last week.” - Trump

Glenn Kessler can't read minds, so any "fact check" of what someone else is thinking and feeling is a lie.

Kessler:  2,991
Trump: 184


32) “It's been tremendously successful, far beyond what anyone thought. We're stopping, in large numbers, the drugs coming into the country for many, many years and decades.” - Trump

In the same way that Kessler attempted to turn total apprehensions at the boarder into a proxy for Boarder security, he tries the opposite here, arguing that a decline in drug seizures at the boarder means more drugs are getting through.

This is about as solid a bit of evidence you will ever find that Glenn Kessler is useless as a fact checker and an incompetent buffoon as a propagandist.  He has used the same argument twice, but drew different conclusions as it suited his goal.

Again, I should award double points, but I'm fair...

Kessler:  3,093
Trump: 184

33) “There does seem to be a surge now because people are coming up. Some caravans are starting to form because they think there's going to be a lot in it for them.” - Trump

Glenn Kessler calls this a lie because "there is no evidence of a surge"... the same Glenn Kessler who used the surge in arrests as proof Trump lied about boarder protection.

Kessler: 3,094
Trump: 184


34) “So if you read my speech -- and many people have done it, and I've seen it both in the papers and in the media, on television -- it's been analyzed, and people thought that what I said was totally appropriate....they've analyzed my speech and words and my final paragraph, my final sentence, and everybody, to the T, thought it was totally appropriate.” - Trump

Kessler barely tries here.  Trump's statement is typical politician speak, and yes, people have determined it was appropriate.  Not everyone deemed it appropriate, but it's not a lie.

What Kessler does here is determine that HE didn't find it appropriate, and so therefor he'll count it as a lie.

It's not a lie.

Kessler:  3,094
Trump: 184


35) “If you look at what other people have said -- politicians at a high level -- about the riots during the summer, the horrible riots in Portland and Seattle, in various other -- other places, that was a real problem -- what they said.” - Trump

Kessler calls this a lie because Trump didn't name anyone specifically for supporting the riots of the past summer. I can show receipts if Glenn wants, Maxine Waters, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Ocassio-Cortez, etc. etc. along with Democrat supporters in the media who spent time down playing those riots or even supporting them (Chris Cuomo famously asked where it said in the Constitution that protests must be peaceful...)

If anyone needs receipts I'll provide them.

Kessler is playing dumb here... or maybe he's just dumb, in which case this is a wash.

Just kidding, Kessler is a liar.

Kessler:  3,095
Trump: 184

36) “The impeachment hoax is a continuation of the greatest and most vicious witch hunt in the history of our country.” - Trump

The claim here is that even though it's all the same people, and all the same overstepping of Constitutional norms, that it's totally different.

It's not.

This is an opinion, not a lie.


Kessler:  3,096
Trump: 184


37) 
“In every region that we've built the wall, illegal crossings and drug smuggling have plummeted. Absolutely plummeted. In the Rio Grande Valley, crossings have dropped nearly 80 percent. In Yuma, Arizona, illegal entries have been slashed by 90 percent.” - Trump

Kessler gives Trump 1 lie for this for "cherry picking Data"... but Trump made a very specific claim here that Kessler tries to "disprove" by trying to prove something else.

.. and he uses the same dubious claim that higher numbers of apprehensions and lower drug seizures both equate to a less secure boarder.  There is no way to prove one of those claims without disproving the other.

In other words, Glenn Kessler is being misleading.

Kessler: 3,097
Trump: 184



38) “Nationwide, ICE and Border Patrol have seized over 2 million pounds of fentanyl, heroin, meth, and other deadly narcotics, saving thousands and thousands of lives.”

Kessler again tries to change the argument.  Trump stated a quite clear statistic that ICE and Boarder Patrol seized over 2 million pounts of drugs and Kessler tries to disprove this by lining to the CBP database that shows boarder patrol a has seized... over 2 million pounds of drugs.

I mean seriously, this is right out of the link Glenn Kessler gave:





So Trump told the truth, but Kessler determined Trump meant something else, and that something else was a lie.

I'm seeing a trend....

Kessler: 3,098
Trump: 184


39) “We’ve arrested nearly 500,000 illegal aliens with criminal records, some with very serious criminal records of the type you don't want to know about, like murder.” - Trump

Here we have Kessler again deciding that Trump didn't mean what he said, and changed the argument.

Trump gave no time frame to that statement, and would be read as over his entire 4 year term, and yet Kessler decides that Trump only meant 2020, and so decides that 103,000 arrests in 2020 is far fewer than Trump's claim of 500,000.

So... let me do the work that Glenn Kessler dihonestly avoided, per the CBP page he linked to:

2017: 143,479
2018: 158,581
2019: 
143,000
2020: 103,603

Total:  548,663...

So Trump understated the number of arrests... so clearly Glenn had to find some way of turning it into a lie...

... Kessler's lie.

Kessler: 3,099
Trump: 184


40) “We removed nearly 20,000 gang members from the United States, including 4,500 members of MS-13 -- probably the worst gang of them all.” - Trump

In this case Kessler provides no actual evidence to counter Trump's statement and passes a claim Trump stated regarding 3 years, rather than the full 4 years.  So really Kessler is misleading again, claiming a lie when he doesn't actually have the data to back it up.

Kessler: 3,100
Trump: 184


41) “Our most important reform was ending catch and release -- not easy to do; you're dealing with Congress; it's very, very difficult -- which is the functional equivalent of open borders, but even worse: It's catch and release them.” - Trump

And finally this, where again Kessler fails to stick to the subject.  The Trump adminsitration ended catch and release, this is true.  Some jurisdictions have challenged catch and release and refuse to hand illegals over to ICE when they are caught.

Why do they refuse?  Because ICE will deport them rather than hand them a summons and release them with the hope they will return for a trial.

So again, and finally, another lie by Glenn Kessler...

Kessler: 3,135
Trump: 184


Summary:

Glenn Kessler has so consistently flipped statements and built straw men in his pursuit of fact checking Donald Trump that it defies any attempt to excuse it as accidental.  He is a paid liar.

Of the 3,319 "lies" that Glenn Kessler documents on his Trump "Lie Tracker", a whopping 94.5% of those lies are by Glenn Kessler, not Trump.

That would be about 11% sampling of the Glenn Kessler fact check cluster boink... which is enough to assume that of the 30,573 "lies" that Glenn Kessler attributes to Trump, a cool 28,878 of those lies were from Glenn Kessler, not Donald Trump.

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